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Posted: October 02, 2018 7:00 AM
Poll: Andrew Cuomo opens big lead in NY governor's race
Syracuse Post-Standard, October 2, 2018
Theo Wargo
Stephanine Miner, Howie Hawkins, Larry Sharpe largely unknown
Three other minor party candidates -- from left, Stephanie Miner, Larry Sharpe and Howie Hawkins -- are trying to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.
More than three-quarters of likely voters told Siena pollsters they are not familiar with the three candidates.
Sharpe, the Libertarian candidate, is favored by 2 percent of likely voters.
Miner, making an independent bid under the Serve America Movement banner, has the support of 1 percent of likely voters.
Hawkins, the Green Party nominee, is tied with Miner at 1 percent.
The three appeared onstage during the 2018 Global Citizen Festival on Saturday, Sept. 29, 2018 in New York City.
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by Mark Weiner
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is holding onto a 22-point lead over Republican Marc Molinaro as the 2018 race for governor enters its final five weeks, according to a new poll made public Monday.
Cuomo, a two-term Democrat, leads Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive, 50-28 percent, according to the Siena College poll of likely voters.
The governor also leads by wide margins over four other third-party candidates who will appear on the Nov. 6 ballot, the poll found. A combined 14 percent of likely voters said they will vote for one of the third-party candidates.
Hans Pennink | AP file photo
Andrew Cuomo opens big lead over Marc Molinaro in NY governor's race, poll says
Siena pollster Steve Greenberg said it will be difficult for Molinaro to make the race competitive before Election Day.
"Five weeks is a long time in the world of campaigns," Greenberg said. "However, Molinaro remains largely unknown to more than half of voters, trails Cuomo badly in the money game and faces an electorate with more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans in a blue state that hasn't gone red in a statewide election since 2002."
What follows is a closer look at the poll.
Skip Dickstein | Albany Times Union via AP
Cuomo, Molinaro in dead heat in Upstate New York
Voters in Upstate New York are closely divided over the two major-party candidates, with 38 percent likely to vote for Cuomo and 36 percent likely to vote for Molinaro, the poll found.
About 18 percent of Upstate voters said they plan to vote for one of the four other candidates, including two from Syracuse -- former mayor Stephanie Miner and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins.
Cuomo's strongest support is in New York City and its suburbs. He leads Molinaro by 61 points in New York City and 24 points in the downstate suburbs, according to the poll.
Samantha House | syracuse.com
Cynthia Nixon leads among third-party candidates
Cynthia Nixon, the actress who lost to Cuomo in the Sept. 13 Democratic primary election, remains on the November ballot on the Working Families Party line.
Nixon has the support of 10 percent of likely voters, who plan to vote for her on the WFP line, according to the Siena poll.
That's enough support to separate Nixon from the other third-party candidates.
The bad news for Nixon: She's viewed unfavorably by 49 percent of all likely voters, and favorably by 28 percent of voters.
The Working Families Party is considering a plan to move Nixon off the governor's ballot, the New York Post reported.
Theo Wargo
Stephanine Miner, Howie Hawkins, Larry Sharpe largely unknown
Three other minor party candidates -- from left, Stephanie Miner, Larry Sharpe and Howie Hawkins -- are trying to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.
More than three-quarters of likely voters told Siena pollsters they are not familiar with the three candidates.
Sharpe, the Libertarian candidate, is favored by 2 percent of likely voters.
Miner, making an independent bid under the Serve America Movement banner, has the support of 1 percent of likely voters.
Hawkins, the Green Party nominee, is tied with Miner at 1 percent.
The three appeared onstage during the 2018 Global Citizen Festival on Saturday, Sept. 29, 2018 in New York City.
Mary Altaffer | Associated Press
Andrew Cuomo's strengths
Cuomo is doing a better job holding his Democratic base (77 percent to 6 percent) than Molinaro is with Republicans (59 percent to 21 percent), the poll found.
Cuomo leads among independent voters (39-29 percent) and by 31 percentage points with women.
Overall, Cuomo is viewed favorably by 50 percent of likely voters, and unfavorably by 46 percent.
James T. Mulder | [email protected]
Marc Molinaro's strengths
Molinaro has significantly more support among men than women, trailing Cuomo by 12 percentage points (32-44 percent) among men.
More people view Molinaro favorably than unfavorably, 24-20 percent.
But 56 percent of voters said they have not heard of Molinaro, or do not know enough about him to have an opinion.
Theo Wargo
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Larry Sharpe?
About 5 percent of likely voters had a favorable view of Sharpe, compared to 10 percent who had an unfavorable view.
About 84 percent of voters said they've never heard of Sharpe, or don't know enough about him to have an opinion.
David Lassman | The Post-Standard
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Stephanie Miner?
About 11 percent voters had a favorable view of Stephanie Miner and 11 percent had an unfavorable view.
About 78 percent of likely voters in New York say they have never heard of the former Syracuse mayor or don't know enough about her to have an opinion.
Theo Wargo
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Howie Hawkins
Hawkins, right, is making his third consecutive bid for governor on the Green Party ballot line, but is still not well known across New York.
About 7 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Hawkins, and 7 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
The poll found 86 percent of voters in New York have not heard of Hawkins, or don't know enough about him to have an opinion.
The Syracuse resident received 184,419 votes, or about 5 percent of the statewide total, as the Green Party nominee for governor in 2014.
Louis Lanzano | TNS
Which of the major party candidates would be better at battling corruption?
Voters said Molinaro would be better than Cuomo at battling corruption in New York state, 41-36 percent.
The margin was wider in Upstate New York, where voters said by a 2-to-1 margin that Molinaro would be better at fighting corruption.
Former New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, above, is shown entering federal court in New York on the first day of his second corruption trial on April 30, 2018.
Richard Drew | AP
Which of the major party candidates would be better at creating jobs?
About 50 percent of likely New York voters said Cuomo would be better at creating jobs than Molinaro (36 percent).
In Upstate New York, 48 percent said Molinaro would be better at creating jobs, compared to 40 percent for Cuomo.
Dick Blume | The Post-Standard
Which of the major party candidates would be more focused on the unique problems of Upstate New York?
Voters said Cuomo (46 percent) would do a better job than Molinaro (36 percent) focusing on the unique problems in Upstate New York.
But among Upstate New Yorkers, 47 percent said Molinaro would do a better job than Cuomo (39 percent) dealing with the region's problems.
Mike Greenlar | [email protected]
How the poll was conducted
The Siena College poll of 701 likely voters in New York state was conducted by live operators calling land lines and cell phones from Sept. 20 through Sept. 27, 2018.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
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