more

Hawkins at 3-5% in Zogby Poll

Hawkins at 3-5% in Zogby Poll

Inform NY, July 17, 2018

NY Governor’s race General Election Full head to head match-up %
Andrew Cuomo 54
Marc Molinaro 30
Stephanie Miner 12
Howie Hawkins 5

 

Here is a list of names, please tell me if your overall impression is Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, Very Unfavorable, or you are Not Familiar Enough to make a judgment
Politicians Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Not Familiar Enough
Andrew Cuomo 20 32 17 26 4
Carl Heastie 2 8 8 6 76*
John Flanagan 3 10 9 5 73
Donald Trump 21 19 9 49* 2
Joe Biden 29* 33* 15 18 6
Bernie Sanders 25 32 16 23 5
Cynthia Nixon 9 26 18* 19 29
Stephanie Miner 3 11 9 5 72
Marc Molinaro 5 11 10 6 69

Of the state- and federal-level politicians we surveyed among New York likely voters, Joe Biden received the highest favorability rating (very and somewhat favorable options combined) at 62% (29% very favorable and 33% somewhat favorable), while a third were unfavorable (14% somewhat unfavorable and 18% very unfavorable) of the former vice president. In close second was the Independent senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, who was favored by 57% (25% very favorable and 32% somewhat favorable) of New York likely voters, and was unfavorable to 39% of voters (16% somewhat unfavorable and 23% very unfavorable). Next was New York governor Andrew Cuomo, who received a 52% favorable (20% very favorable/33% somewhat favorable) /43% unfavorable rating (17% somewhat unfavorable/26% very unfavorable).

When it came to the other New York gubernatorial candidates, neither Cynthia Nixon nor Stephanie Miner received a majority of either favorable or unfavorable ratings. Cynthia Nixon was much more known than the former Syracuse Mayor, Stephanie Miner. Nixon received a better rating with 35% favorable of the former actress turned politician, and 37% were unfavorable of her. 29% were not familiar enough to make a judgment. Miner, on the other hand, was widely unknown to likely voters statewide. Almost three-quarters were not familiar enough to make a judgment, while 15% were favorable and 14% were unfavorable of her. Republican nominee, Marc Molinaro, was also widely unknown by 69% of New York likely voters.

If the Democratic primary for New York state governor were held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo and Cynthia Nixon, for whom would you vote? %
Andrew Cuomo 63%
Cynthia Nixon 22%
Not sure 15%

In the democratic primary for New York governor, Andrew Cuomo handily defeats Cynthia Nixon, 63% to 22%, with 15% of statewide likely voters not sure. Cuomo does extremely well among all demographics. The governor receives a strong majority of support among men (65%), women (61%), Generation Z voters age 18-24 (53%), Millennials age 18-29 (55%), upstate (66%), suburban (61%) and NYC voters (61%). Governor Cuomo captures support, percentagewise, in the high fifties to high sixties in every demographic.

Nixon does better among Millennials age 18-29 (32%), voters who identify as liberals (28%), and union voters (26%). Still, at this point Nixon has a long way to go to be a serious challenge to Cuomo in this race.

NY Governor’s race Full Democratic Primary  %
Andrew Cuomo 73
Cynthia Nixon 28

When we ask voters who were not sure to choose between the two candidates, and combine the numbers from the original horserace—we asked them “if they had to make-up their minds right now and the election were held today”—Cuomo increases his lead and wins almost three-quarters of the vote. Cuomo wins convincingly among all groups that matter to his base: Millennials (61%), Generation Z (64%), African Americans (72%), Hispanics (75%), upstate voters (75%), suburban voters (77%), NYC voters (67%), men (72%), and women (73%). Again, Cynthia Nixon does better with 18-29 year olds (39%), liberals (35%), voters aged 25-34 (34%) and union voters (32%). Her numbers improve, but are nowhere near enough to seriously challenge Cuomo in the primary at this time.

If the general election for New York state governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Andrew Cuomo and Republican Marc Molinaro, for whom would you vote? %
Andrew Cuomo 52
Marc Molinaro 32
Not sure 15

Overall, Cuomo wins a majority (52%) over Molinaro (32%), and 15% remain not sure. Cuomo does best among the democratic base, and since New York is a “deep blue” state, this only makes Cuomo’s support from the democratic base that much more amplified in the overall results versus the Dutchess County Executive. The governor does best with Millennials age 18-29 (64%), women (57%), African Americans (76%), Hispanics (55%), NYC voters (63%) and lower income voters, who earn less than $25k annually (65%).

Molinaro does better in certain areas, and makes the race for governor closer among certain sub-groups. He does better among upstate voters (Cuomo leads 47% to 40%), men (Cuomo leads 47% to 40%), independent voters (Cuomo leads 41% to 37%), middle income voters, who earn $50k-$75K annually (Cuomo leads 42% to 41%), upper income voters, who earn $100k-$150K annually (Cuomo leads 47% to 43%), union voters (Cuomo leads 50% to 39%) and rural area voters (Molinaro leads 51% to 35%).

NY Governor’s race General Election Full head to head match-up %
Andrew Cuomo 61
Marc Molinaro 39

When we ask voters who were not sure to make a choice, and combine the figures with the original horserace, Cuomo increases his share of the lead and is winning almost every demographic with strong majorities of voters among Millennials, Generation Z, minorities, women, NYC, suburbs and lower and upper income voters in New York.

Again, Marc Molinaro does make the race closer among men, upstate and union voters--Cuomo leads 54% to 46% in each category; Molinaro also wins rural voters—55% to 45%. The race is also tighter among independent voters (Cuomo leads 53% to 47%), middle income voters (Molinaro leads 51% to 49%), and upper income voters (Cuomo leads 53% to 47%).

If the general election for New York state governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Andrew Cuomo, Republican Marc Molinaro, and Independent Stephanie Miner, for whom would you vote? %
Andrew Cuomo 49
Marc Molinaro 27
Stephanie Miner 11
Not sure 12

When we add declared Independent candidate Stephanie Miner, who plans to run on the Serve America Movement (SAM) line, to the race, Cuomo wins less than a majority; he captures 49% of the vote. Molinaro wins less than a third (27%), while Miner receives 11%; 12% of voters remain undecided. Cuomo continues to do best with his base—city voters, minorities, younger voters, women, and lower income voters. Molinaro does make things somewhat closer with men (Cuomo leads 45% to 34%), upstate (Cuomo leads 42% to 31%) and union voters (Cuomo leads 46% to 33%), but Cuomo’s dominance over his base nullifies any gains Molinaro makes in these groups. In this scenario Miner is not a factor, except she does garner 20% among Independents, compared to 36% for Cuomo and 27% for Molinaro.

NY Governor’s race General Election Full head to head match-up %
Andrew Cuomo 54
Marc Molinaro 32
Stephanie Miner 14

When we ask voters who were not sure to make a choice and combine the figures with the original horserace, Cuomo wins a majority of likely voters (54%), while Molinaro wins a third (32%) and Miner wins 14%. The governor wins easily among women (59%), Millennials (59%), Generation Z (63%), African Americans (71%), Hispanics (61%) and lower income voters, who earn less $25k annually (66%). Molinaro, as highlighted before, tightens the race with men, middle income and upper income voters, and wins among rural voters. Cuomo does well enough with independents by wining 44% of independents compared to 32% for Molinaro, and 24% for Miner.

If the general election for New York state governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Andrew Cuomo, Republican Marc Molinaro, Independent Stephanie Miner, and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins, for whom would you vote? %
Andrew Cuomo 50
Marc Molinaro 27
Stephanie Miner 10
Howie Hawkins  4
Not sure 9

By adding Green party nominee Howie Hawkins into the mix, Governor Cuomo does not capture a majority of the vote; he receives half (50%). Molinaro drops to 27%, while Miner receives 10% and Hawkins receives 4% of the vote. 9% remain not sure. Cuomo continues to hold comfortable leads in all demographic categories. He wins majorities (52%-68%) of younger voters, minorities, lower income voters and upper income voters.  The only change is Molinaro wins rural voters with 43%, while Cuomo finishes second (33%) and Miner receives 11%. Cuomo also does well enough with independents (37%) and union voters (44%).

NY Governor’s race General Election Full head to head match-up %
Andrew Cuomo 54
Marc Molinaro 30
Stephanie Miner 12
Howie Hawkins 5

Cuomo dominates in every category when we ask voters who were not sure to make a choice, and combine the figures with the original horserace. He does extremely well with Generation Z voters (58%), women (58%) and Independents (42%). He even wins a quarter of Republicans. Cuomo continues to dominate with Millennials (62%), African Americans (73%), Hispanics (58%) and voters who earn less $25k annually (69%). He also wins comfortably with upstate, suburban and NYC voters. Miner and Hawkins do not impact the race enough with key groups such as upstate voters, independents, men, suburban and union voters. Miner does improve her numbers among Independents, jumping to 19%. In this four-way race scenario, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro does not factor in the race or among any demographic groups outside of rural voters, which he wins with 45% compared to Cuomo’s 37%, Miner’s 15% and Hawkins’ 3% of the vote.

If the general election for New York state governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Andrew Cuomo, Republican Marc Molinaro, Independent Stephanie Miner, Working Families Party nominee Cynthia Nixon, and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins, for whom would you vote? %
Andrew Cuomo 44
Marc Molinaro 26
Stephanie Miner 6
Howie Hawkins  3
Cynthia Nixon 14
Not sure 7

Another potential scenario come November is that Cynthia Nixon, who has the Working Families Party line in the Democratic primary, could remain on the November ballot, creating another challenge to Governor Cuomo. Although our polling data shows Cuomo with a formidable lead, Cuomo winning only a plurality of the electorate could derail his national ambitions, namely a potential 2020 presidential run in what may be a crowded Democratic primary. In this five-way race, Cuomo receives 44% of likely voters, Molinaro receives 26%, Nixon jumps Miner with 14%, and Miner and Hawkins are non-factors with 6% and 3%, respectively. 7% were unsure.

What’s interesting with a five-way race is Nixon’s impact with groups who favor the governor. Nixon wins a quarter of liberal voters, 21% of Millennials age 18-29, 18% of union voters, 17% of women, 17% of African-Americans, 21% of voters who earn $25-35k annually—lower income voters, and 13% of independents. Cuomo wins comfortably among all these groups but Cynthia Nixon definitely prevents him from winning big with the Democratic base and a majority overall.

NY Governor’s race General Election Full head to head match-up %
Andrew Cuomo 46
Marc Molinaro 28
Stephanie Miner 7
Howie Hawkins  4
Cynthia Nixon 15

When we ask voters who were not sure to make a choice and combine the figures with the original horserace, the numbers do not move much. Governor Cuomo still receives a plurality (46%), followed by Marc Molinaro (28%), Cynthia Nixon (15%), Stephanie Miner (7%), and Howie Hawkins (3%).

Again, Cuomo wins almost every demographic and by double digits, but Cynthia Nixon does continue to frustrate him with groups he would normally dominate if she weren’t on the ballot. These are primarily young, female, liberal, minority and lower income voters.

This is a potential issue for Cuomo--if he is attacked by his foes for failed economic policies and corruption scandals, his numbers could dip as a result. Will Nixon or Molinaro pick-up the slack is the question. One thing is for sure, Cuomo is in a very good spot right now, but he has multiple candidates gunning for him, and there are consequences regardless if he cruises to another victory.

Be the first to comment

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.

Ready for the next step?

Sign up for our newsletter

- or -

Volunteer Donate

Search Howie's website and previous campaign archives here: